Terms of Use

1. Provider and acceptance

The service is provided by:

By using Probably or its online service, you agree to these Terms and the Privacy Policy. If you do not agree, do not use the group-sync service. Mandatory statutory rights remain unaffected.

2. What Probably is

Probably is a personal prediction journal. You can record a question, assign a probability or estimate, update it over time, and later record an outcome. The optional Groups feature lets a small invited group share selected predictions and forecasts. Personal predictions remain local unless you choose to share them.

3. No conventional account

Probably does not require an email address or password. The app creates a random device identity and stores a group credential in the iOS Keychain. You are responsible for access to your device. Do not share credentials or active invite codes publicly. We may revoke credentials or invites when reasonably necessary to protect users or the service.

4. Group content and conduct

• Share content only with people you intend to invite.
• Do not upload unlawful, threatening, abusive, discriminatory, infringing, deceptive, or privacy-invasive content.
• Do not include another person's sensitive or confidential information without a lawful basis and their appropriate permission.
• Do not probe, overload, circumvent access controls, automate abusive requests, or interfere with the app or service.
• Use reporting only in good faith. Do not submit false, repetitive, or abusive reports or misuse blocking to harass another person.

You retain ownership of content you create. You grant us a limited, non-exclusive licence to host, copy, transmit, and format content only as needed to operate, secure, and support the service and make shared content available to your group.

The service may automatically reject text that matches its basic objectionable- content rules. Members can report another member's shared prediction or comment and privately block another member. Blocking hides that member's comments for the blocker and stops activity notifications between the two identities, but does not remove shared predictions or forecast history. We may review reports and remove content, restrict access, or take another proportionate action where reasonably necessary for safety, legal compliance, or enforcement of these Terms.

5. Predictions and rankings

Group rankings compare forecast accuracy. Personal streaks track participation. There are no virtual stakes, pooled pots, credit wallets, or outcome-based payouts. These features do not award money or prizes. Legacy wagering records are retained only as inactive history.

6. Probably Together subscriptions

Personal journal features remain available without a subscription. Probably Together is an optional auto-renewable subscription purchased through Apple. One subscribed organizer can sponsor one private group for themselves and up to seven invited members. Invited members do not need their own subscription while the organizer's group access is active.

The app shows the subscription period, localized price, any introductory offer, and included service before purchase. Payment is charged to your Apple Account when you confirm. The subscription renews automatically for the displayed period and price until you cancel it in Apple's subscription settings. A free trial or other introductory offer converts to the displayed paid subscription unless you cancel before the offer ends. Deleting Probably, leaving a group, transferring a membership, or deleting group data does not by itself cancel an Apple subscription.

Cancellation normally takes effect after the current paid period. If a renewal payment fails, an Apple billing grace period may apply. Existing shared content remains readable and can be exported or deleted using the available data controls, but starting new premium group activity may pause until an organizer renews. Refunds and billing disputes are handled under Apple's applicable terms and mandatory consumer law.

7. Availability and changes

We aim to keep the service useful and reliable, but do not promise uninterrupted or error-free availability. Features may change, be suspended, or be discontinued. Where reasonably possible, we will give appropriate notice of a material change that adversely affects existing use. Keep your device and app up to date.

8. Leaving, deletion, and termination

You can leave a group from the Groups tab. We may restrict or terminate access where reasonably necessary for abuse, security, legal compliance, or a serious breach of these Terms. The Data Deletion pageexplains how to request erasure. Provisions that by their nature should survive termination — including ownership, necessary licences, liability, and dispute terms — continue to apply.

9. Liability

We are liable without limitation for intent and gross negligence, injury to life, body, or health, fraudulently concealed defects, guarantees we expressly give, and liability that cannot lawfully be excluded. For slight negligence involving an essential contractual duty, liability is limited to the foreseeable damage typical for this kind of agreement. Otherwise, liability for slight negligence is excluded to the extent permitted by law. Statutory product-liability rules remain unaffected.

10. Apple terms

Your download and use of the iOS app are also subject to the applicable Apple Media Services terms and, unless a custom licence is presented in the App Store, Apple's Standard Licensed Application End User License Agreement. Apple is not responsible for operating our group-sync service or providing our support.

11. Governing law and consumers

German law applies, excluding the UN Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods, without depriving consumers of mandatory protections of their country of residence. A court has jurisdiction only as provided by mandatory law. If one provision is invalid, the remaining provisions continue to apply.

12. Changes and contact

We may update these Terms for legal, security, or service changes. The date at the top identifies the current version. Material changes will be communicated in an appropriate way and will not apply retroactively where prohibited. Questions can be sent to mail@pmuench.com.